Josh Appelbaum examines where smart money is leaning for tonight's NCAA Championship game between Purdue and Connecticut.
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 147.5 to 145. This movement is especially notable because the public is taking the over (61% of bets), yet the total fell, indicating sharp under reverse line movement. Both teams have been “under” teams this March Madness, with Connecticut a perfect 5-0 to the under and Purdue 4-1 to the under. Both teams rank top 12 in the country in defensive efficiency. Both teams also play at a slower, more deliberate pace. The Huskies have an adjusted tempo of 64.7 (possessions per 40 minutes), while the Boilermakers have a tempo of 67.1. For reference, anything below a 70 tempo is considered “slow.” Unders are 36-29 (55%) this March Madness. When the total falls at least 2-points, the under is 43-27 (61%) in March Madness since 2020. Unders are 11-7 (61%) in the NCAA Championship game since 2005. If the Championship game total is 145 or more the under is 6-2 (75%) since 2005. The under also matches the classic “tired legs under” system, as both teams are playing their 6th NCAA Tournament game and only had one day off since the Final Four.
9:20 p.m. ET: Purdue vs Connecticut (-6.5, 145)
This game will be played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, home of the Arizona Cardinals. Purdue (34-4) is the 1-seed and just brushed aside NC State 63-50 in the Final Four. Similarly, Connecticut (36-3) is also the 1-seed and just outlasted Alabama 86-72 in the Final Four. This line opened with Connecticut listed as a 6-point neutral site favorite. Sharp money laid the points with powerhouse Connecticut as soon as the line opened, steaming the Huskies up from -6 to -6.5. Some shops are even inching up to -7. Essentially, all movement and liability is on Connecticut. The Huskies are receiving 68% of spread bets and 76% of spread dollars, signaling both public and sharp support in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Connecticut has the better offensive efficiency (1st vs 3rd), better defensive efficiency (4th vs 12th), better free-throw shooting (74% vs 72%) and takes better care of the ball (36th in turnovers compared to 145th for Purdue). With all that being said, Ken Pom only has Connecticut winning by three points (75-72), which would signal actionable value on Purdue, especially if you can shop around and find a +7. The fly in the ointment, however, is the fact that the Huskies have consistently outperformed the betting market for two straight NCAA Tournaments. Since the start of last year, Connecticut is a perfect 11-0 ATS in March Madness.Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 147.5 to 145. This movement is especially notable because the public is taking the over (61% of bets), yet the total fell, indicating sharp under reverse line movement. Both teams have been “under” teams this March Madness, with Connecticut a perfect 5-0 to the under and Purdue 4-1 to the under. Both teams rank top 12 in the country in defensive efficiency. Both teams also play at a slower, more deliberate pace. The Huskies have an adjusted tempo of 64.7 (possessions per 40 minutes), while the Boilermakers have a tempo of 67.1. For reference, anything below a 70 tempo is considered “slow.” Unders are 36-29 (55%) this March Madness. When the total falls at least 2-points, the under is 43-27 (61%) in March Madness since 2020. Unders are 11-7 (61%) in the NCAA Championship game since 2005. If the Championship game total is 145 or more the under is 6-2 (75%) since 2005. The under also matches the classic “tired legs under” system, as both teams are playing their 6th NCAA Tournament game and only had one day off since the Final Four.
